Poll: Obama Leads by Wide Margins Among Latinos; Fla. in Play for GOP
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Comstock/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) — Only nine months from Election Day, Latino voters — the nation’s fastest-growing voting bloc — favor President Obama over all the Republican candidates by a wide margin, according to a new poll conducted by Latino Decisions for Univision News and ABC News.
While Latinos tend to side with Democrats — and voted for Obama by a two-to-one margin in 2008 — they also have a prominent role to play in the upcoming GOP nominating contests in Nevada and, more immediately, in Florida, which votes on Jan. 31.
In the Sunshine State, where about one in 10 likely Republican primary voters is Latino, 35 percent of Hispanic Republicans say they would vote for Mitt Romney, while only 20 percent support Newt Gingrich, with 21 percent undecided, according to the poll.
Florida’s GOP primary is closed, meaning one must be a registered Republican in order to participate.
Thus far, Gingrich’s victory in last Saturday’s South Carolina primary has not triggered a significant boost in his Latino support in Florida. In the final days of polling — Sunday and Monday — Gingrich’s Latino support in Florida only increased by 2 percentage points.
“I’m not seeing a significant bounce for Gingrich out of South Carolina in the sense that it’s not like he has passed Romney or anything,” said Gary Segura, a principal at Latino Decisions. “Obviously Gingrich is doing much better than he was in November — then he was at 4 percent nationally, now he’s at 15.”
Romney’s support appears to be driven by the state’s most influential Latino Republican voting bloc, Cuban-Americans. Among Florida Latinos of Cuban origin — a group that constitutes around 540,000 of the state’s 1.5 million Latino voters — Romney leads Gingrich by 32 points, 49 percent to 17 percent.
Though Latinos only constitute 11 percent of the Florida GOP primary electorate, they have the power to swing the contest. In 2008, Romney lost the Florida primary to Sen. John McCain after the Arizona lawmaker won 54 percent of the Latino vote compared to Romney’s 14 percent — the Cuban population sided with McCain 52 percent to 13 percent.
But this time around Romney has secured the endorsement of a slew of key Florida Republicans with Cuban roots, such as Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, and former Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a lineup that was featured in a Spanish-language ad the former Massachusetts governor released in the state.
Puerto Ricans, who constitute the second-largest faction of Florida Latinos — numbering around 480,000, also back Romney over Gingrich, but only by a 10-point margin, 22 percent to 12 percent. Latino voters who hail from other places, like Central and South America, also back Romney 29 percent to 21 percent.
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