Obama Favored to Beat Romney, Despite Even Split in Support

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Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Alex Wong/Getty Images(PRINCETON, N.J.) — A majority of Americans surveyed said President Obama would win re-election in November, according to a new Gallup poll released Tuesday.

The polling numbers — 56 percent for Obama, 36 percent for Romney — suggest that Democrats have more faith in their candidate than Republicans have in theirs. Among Democrats, 81 percent believe that Obama will win the election, while 68 percent of Republicans believe Romney will prevail.

More independents, 58 percent, chose Obama as the likely victor too, while 31 percent went for Romney.

How Obama comes out the favorite remains a conumdrum. A majority of polls so far has shown an even divide in support for the two candidates. The most recent Gallup tracking has Obama at 46 percent, and Romney at 45 percent — a statistical tie given the margin of error of +/- 2 percent.

History has proven more kind to incumbents than to challengers in presidential races. It’s been 20 years, when Bill Clinton defeated President George H.W. Bush in 1992, since a sitting president was voted out of office after one term.

Past Gallup polls have also given better odds to incumbents. In 2004, more Americans believed George W. Bush would win over John Kerry. In 1996, Gallup polling indicated that voters believed Clinton would defeat Bob Dole.

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