Exit Polls: Obama’s Winning Coalition of Women and Nonwhites
(NEW YORK) — A coalition of women and nonwhites helped re-elect President Obama to a second term Tuesday night.
Obama has always performed better with women than with men, and with nonwhites than with whites. But on Tuesday night, those numbers were so much in his favor that they built Obama a powerful firewall against a dropoff in support from white men and independent voters.
Nonwhite voters turned out to vote in higher numbers than ever. They made up 21 percent of all voters. In 1996, they were just 10 percent.
That new bloc was evident in Florida, the perennial swing state that was thought to be in Mitt Romney’s corner. Hispanics came out in force for Obama, in greater numbers than in 2008 when Obama beat John McCain among Hispanics in Florida 57 to 42 percent. On Tuesday, he beat Romney among Hispanics 60 to 39 percent.
And as the country tinted blue for the second presidential election in a row, it also got a little less white.
White voters made up only 72 percent of the electorate in this election, according to exit polls. That’s still a majority, but it’s the lowest in exit polls dating from 1976.
Romney won the white vote handily, 58 to 40 percent, the biggest lead for a Republican since 1988.
Romney’s most reliant bloc the whole campaign was white men. He led by 25 points with them on Tuesday. But in 1976, white men were 46 percent of voters. Today, they’re at a new low, 34 percent.
If white women had stayed in Romney’s camp, those swing states — Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire — might have moved into his column. Instead, Obama led among women by 12 points, nearly identical to his lead among women four years ago.
In Florida, Obama led Romney by just two points among independents, according to the exit polls. In 2008, that number was seven.
In Ohio, Romney leads Obama by 10 points among independents — a significant number considering that in 2008 Obama had an 8 point lead over McCain in Ohio among the same nonaligned voters. But women came to Obama’s rescue, keeping him competitive. Exit polls showed Obama with a 12 point lead among women, more than his 8 point lead in 2008.
In Wisconsin, a state that Romney needed badly, Obama’s one-time strength among independents appeared to be neutralized. He won independents there by 19 points in 2008, but preliminary polls now show that Romney fought to a draw with them. However, Obama prevailed among young voters, and other voters there said they favored the auto bailout by 51 to 40 percent, an issue that the president held over Romney in the Midwest.
Obama lost just a few independents in Iowa, but more than made up for it by winning over women, who picked the president over Romney by a double-digit margin.
In Virginia, Romney won independents by 53 to 41 percent. Four years ago, Obama and McCain tied among independents in the commonwealth.
Just like white men, independents make up less of the electorate than they did four years ago.
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