Here’s why Boise State, now locked in to the College Football Playoff, likely gets a bye

BOISE (Idaho Statesman) — Boise State is heading to the College Football Playoff, expanded to 12 teams this year for the first time, and now has a shot at playing for a national championship.

The No. 10 Broncos (12-1) cruised to a Mountain West title by beating No. 19 UNLV (10-3) on Friday night at Albertsons Stadium, leading wire to wire in a comfortable 21-7 win. The victory means Boise State will earn one of the automatic playoff bids going to the five highest-rated conference champions — the so-called Group of 5 bid.

But Spencer Danielson’s team also likely has clinched a first-round bye, which go to the top four league winners. The Broncos were in that position this week in the CFP committee’s penultimate rankings, earning the No. 4 seed. The playoff bracket will be unveiled Sunday morning at 10 Mountain time.

“Super excited. It’s never been done here at Boise State,” junior running back Ashton Jeanty said, sitting alongside senior safety Seyi Oladipo at the postgame press conference. “To get that done, and not only that, but my last game on The Blue, Seyi’s last game on The Blue,” Jeanty continued. “It means everything.”

Jeanty has not formally announced he is entering the NFL Draft, but it is a foregone conclusion, as he said this week he was playing his final game at Albertsons.

In Friday night’s game, Jeanty rushed for 209 yards, including a 75-yard TD run that made it 21-0 just before halftime. That dominant display in the first half allowed the Broncos to rely on their defense to protect victory in a win-and-in game.

Their performance also likely secured that first-round bye, and here’s why.

A look at the playoff bracket situation

The agreement reached to expand the playoffs spelled out that there would be five automatic bids, with the Power 4 conference winners and the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ taking those.

The college football presumption was that the four byes to the top four league champions would be taken by the winners of the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 — not by a G5 interloper.

Step up, Boise State.

The Broncos entered the weekend ranked at No. 10, higher than either team in the Big 12 championship game: No. 15 Arizona State vs. No. 16 Iowa State. They also were seven spots ahead of one of the teams in the ACC final, Clemson. The Big 12 winner would have to make a massive leap in the rankings to jump Boise State. Both teams have two losses — with each loss coming to unranked opponents— and one beating the other in what figures to be an evenly matched game isn’t going to be overly impressive.

The Broncos’ only loss came on a last-second field goal to undefeated Oregon, now the No. 1 team in the nation. If Boise State receives a bye, it likely will play in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, on Dec. 31.

Earlier this year, CFP Executive Director Rich Clark said bowl games serving as the playoff quarterfinals would be assigned based on honoring historical traditions and proximity for the higher-ranked team.

In the Fiesta Bowl, the Broncos could be either the No. 4 or No. 3 seed, depending on that ACC final. The Big Ten and SEC champs — Oregon/Penn State in the Big Ten, Texas/Georgia in the SEC — are locked into byes, almost assuredly as the top two seeds. Then it gets interesting.

No. 8 SMU faces No. 17 Clemson in the ACC. If the Mustangs (11-1) win, they should stay locked in as the No. 3 seed. If the Tigers (9-3) pull off an upset, it’s difficult to imagine they would be vaulted over Boise State, meaning BSU could move up to earn the 3 seed. Difficult, but not impossible.

Some college football voices have been adamant this week that no Group of 5 champ should receive a bye, none louder than Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark.

But the committee would have a hard time explaining the elevation of a team or teams by multiple spots to deprive the Broncos a bye. The Big 12 championship game starts at 10 a.m. Mountain time Saturday and the ACC game is at 6 p.m. MT.

‘It’s been our focus’ at Boise State

For most of the year, while Boise was abuzz with the potential of the playoffs, its football team was busy trying to stay grounded. Danielson said his team acknowledged the weekly rankings that started coming out in early November, but didn’t let them matter.

The classic Danielson adage would come out: “The next game is the most important one.” Now that Boise State is in the field, the curtains around the Broncos’ excitement have been pulled back.

“Since January, it’s been on our minds. It’s been our focus,” Jeanty said. “And to see it all coming to fruition, all the hard work that we put in … all the hard work is paying off.”

Danielson remained level-headed and wouldn’t comment on whether Boise State deserves a first-round bye. But now he is finally allowed to care about the rankings, because the ones that come out of the College Football Playoff selection show Sunday morning at 10 actually matter.

“At this point, we’re in, and I’m so proud of our team,” Danielson said. “Wherever we go play, whoever we play, we’re excited to work our tails off to go play our best.”