The good, the bad and the CFP: A midseason review of Boise State football

BOISE (Idaho Statesman) — After a gauntlet of a nonconference schedule and its first two conference games as a member of the Pac-12, Boise State football finally gets a break this week as it enters its bye week.

The Broncos are 5-1 on the season and a perfect 2-0 in the Pac-12, having defeated Utah State and Fresno State to open conference play.

Things are looking good for the Broncos so far. They’ve been ranked in The Associated Press Top 25 for three straight weeks, sitting at No. 23 this week, and are the favorites to claim the College Football Playoff spot that’s guaranteed to a team from a Group of Six conference.

So, what’s going so well for the Broncos? And what do they need to clean up heading into the second half of the season if they want to claim a second CFP berth in three years?

Here are five things to know.

1. The nation’s leading rusher

Getting Déjà vu? For the second time in three years, Boise State has the leading rusher in the nation. It was expected that junior Dylan Riley would have a big season, having vaulted to RB1 last year, but the plan was still to split the carries between Riley and junior Sire Gaines.

However, between a two-game injury absence for Gaines and Riley taking it to another gear, the 5-foot-10 running back is now giving Bronco fans giddy memories of 2024 Ashton Jeanty. Riley’s 835 rushing yards leads the nation this season, and that’s on top of the 120 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns.

He has recorded at least 138 rushing yards in four games and had at least 17 carries every game. As Gaines returns to health, don’t be surprised if Riley’s yards drop a little as the coaching staff manages his reps — but that will only be a positive for the Broncos heading into the latter half of the season.

2. One of the nation’s most efficient quarterbacks

It’s not just in the running game that Boise State is seeing success. Fifth-year quarterback Maddux Madsen is operating among the best quarterbacks in the nation through six games.

In his third full year as the starter, Madsen is one of just seven quarterbacks in the nation with 100-plus pass attempts and no interceptions. Among those seven, his 110 completions are only beaten by Miami’s Heisman Trophy hopeful Darian Mensah (112).

ESPN’s quarterback rating metric ranks Madsen as the fifth-best quarterback in the nation, only trailing Mensah, Gunnar Stockton (Georgia), Keelon Russell (Alabama) and CJ Carr (Notre Dame).

Crucially, Madsen hasn’t fumbled, either. He has 1,296 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns on the season, as well as 110 rushing yards and a touchdown.

3. Major secondary concerns

Boise State defensive coordinator Erik Chinander may have put it best last week: “I think we’re exceptional, but you’ve got to clean (explosive) plays up, and until you do, you’re not.”

For large parts of games, Boise State’s defense looks perfectly fine — especially on late-down defense, ranking eighth in the nation in third-down defense (27.4% conversions) and fourth in fourth downs (8.3%).

But then the opposing QB airs it out. The Broncos’ pass defense ranks 126th in the nation, allowing 261.3 passing yards per game, and most of those yards are coming off explosive plays. And that’s not including the countless defensive pass interference penalties called on the Broncos that result in automatic 15-yard gains.

One cause could be the higher-than-normal amount of pressure Boise State brings on opposing quarterbacks — a tactic that, while disrupting the opponent, has resulted in soft coverage and too many one-on-one opportunities for opposing wide receivers against the Broncos’ struggling cornerbacks.

4. Tackling has fallen off again

The explosive plays aren’t just coming from big plays downfield. After an excellent start to the season against Oregon, Boise State’s tackling has also reverted to its poor 2025 form.

It was on display yet again this past weekend, when junior cornerback Sherrod Smith missed an easy tackle that turned a potential 10-yard gain into a 59-yard touchdown for Fresno State. Chinander described the fall-off last week as the defense going from “controlled violence” to “recklessness.”

He put the issues down to eye control, and is emphasizing the importance of “snipering” in on a specific spot rather than looking at opposing players as a whole.

“See a little, see a lot. See a lot, see nothing,” Chinander said. “When I know exactly where my eyes are going to be, my key’s telling me what to do, then my body can operate.”

5. What does the CFP picture look like?

The 12-team CFP guarantees one spot to a team from the Group of Six conferences — Pac-12, Mountain West, American, Sun Belt, Conference USA and Mid-American.

As things stand, Boise State is the only team ranked in the AP Top 25, indicating that the Broncos are in the driver’s seat.

The rankings that truly matter are the CFP committee’s, which are first released in early November, but those typically closely mirror the AP poll.

ESPN’s analytics give Boise State a 53.5% chance of winning out and claiming that G6 spot. The only other team ESPN is giving a chance to is the Sun Belt’s James Madison; the Dukes are 6-0, but a weaker strength of schedule means they’ll likely remain behind the Broncos as long as Boise State keeps winning.

There is a threat in the Pac-12, though. Oregon State is 4-2 after close loses to the Big 12’s Houston and Texas Tech. Oregon State just beat Colorado State 56-26 and San Diego State 66-14.

The Beavers boast the nation’s leader in passing yards with sophomore Braden Atkinson (2,257) and leader in receiving yards with freshman Jesse Legree (932) — both scary stats for Bronco fans given the team’s struggles in defending the pass.