Win and they’re in: Here’s what Boise State faces in search for a playoff berth

BOISE (Idaho Statesman) — The calendar ticked over into November this weekend, and college football entered its final month of the regular season. Or, as Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson calls it, “compete month.”

“Everything that came maybe easy in-season is really hard now — meetings, practice, a little cold outside. You have to be your best now, and it’s hard,” Danielson said Monday. “That’s why you’re going to see the college football landscape in the next month drastically shift and change, and the best teams will continue to grow.”

The Broncos are part of the national conversation, ranked No. 25 in the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings Tuesday. Boise State is the only team from a Group of Six conference in the rankings, slotting into the 12-team playoff bracket as the highest-ranked G6 representative.

That also means that, if the Broncos win out in their final four regular-season games plus the Pac-12 championship game, they’d be 12-1 and in a strong spot to qualify for their second CFP in three years.

But, of course, that’s easier said than done. Here’s what’s coming down the road for Boise State in “compete month.”

At Colorado State

Compete month begins this Saturday with a road trip to Fort Collins, Colorado. The Rams are 3-5 and 1-3 in Pac-12 play, but their record may be somewhat deceiving.

Colorado State is led by electric quarterback Hauss Hejny, who has thrown 14 touchdown passes in just over four games, having exited Colorado State’s mid-September loss to BYU in the first quarter with a hamstring injury. Hejny missed three games in addition to the BYU game, with the Rams losing all four. Since his return, he’s thrown for 519 yards and four touchdowns in two games.

“They have a really athletic quarterback, and he can move around the pocket as well as get out of the pocket very well,” Boise State fifth-year edge Jayden Virgin-Morgan said Wednesday. “And he has a lot of weapons on the outside as well as very good running backs, and I think this offensive line is super aggressive.”

However, the Broncos shouldn’t worry too much. Colorado State allows FBS worsts in points (42.4) and rushing yards (261.1) per game, which plays directly into Boise State’s strong run game.

Vs. Oregon State

Oregon State is probably the toughest opponent left on Boise State’s schedule. The Beavers are 5-3, but two of those losses came to Texas Tech and Houston, which rank No. 15 and 17, respectively, in the CFP rankings.

The third defeat was more surprising, coming last weekend in a 38-22 loss to San Diego State. But the Beavers still shouldn’t be underestimated.

Quarterback Braden Atkinson leads the nation in passing yards (2,977), while freshman wide receiver Jesse Legree tops the nation in receiving yards (1,110).

What makes this game so interesting is that it could determine Pac-12 Championship Game hosting rights. If the visiting Beavers win, they’d gain a head-to-head advantage over Boise State and, assuming Oregon State wins the rest of its games, secure a championship game in Corvallis, Oregon. A Boise State win would likely put the championship game in Boise, but it would also open the door for other teams to leapfrog Oregon State.

Vs. San Diego State

The Aztecs are a weird team. A mumps outbreak led to 14 cases on the team, causing some key players to miss games earlier in the season. As a result, San Diego State is 4-5 overall but 3-2 in Pac-12 play and sits third behind Oregon State.

If Boise State beats Oregon State the week prior, San Diego State could be in the hunt for the Pac-12 Championship Game and would come out swinging against the Broncos.

The Aztecs defeated Boise State 17-7 in a rain-soaked game last year, and most of that team returned in 2026, including quarterback Jayden Denegal, their top four pass catchers, and 2025 Mountain West rushing leader Lucky Sutton.

Flex Week and Pac-12 Championship

The Pac-12 will announce every team’s eighth and final game of conference play following the conclusion of Week 12 and no later than six days before the final slate of games.

Boise State will be on the road for its flex game and face either Fresno State, Washington State, Colorado State or Utah State — the only team of those four that Boise State plays at home this year is Utah State.

The Pac-12 will make flex game designations based on whatever gives the conference its best shot at making the CFP — with Boise State at the forefront of that conversation, the Broncos will likely get a game that best boosts their chance to stay in the CFP picture.

The Pac-12 Championship Game will be played on Friday, Dec. 4, and will be hosted by the team with the best in-conference record.

No. 25 Boise State at Colorado State

When: 4 p.m. Saturday
Where: Canvas Stadium (36,500, Turf)
TV: USA Sports (Nate Gatter, Ryan Leaf, Lauren Green)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM and KBOI 93.1 FM/Sirius XM Ch. 84 (Bob Behler, Michael Callahan)
Records: Boise State 7-1, 4-0 Pac-12; Colorado State 3-5, 1-3 Series: Boise State leads the series 13-1
Vegas line: Boise State by 17.5 points
Weather: High of 61, low of 31, humidity 41%, sunny, 10% chance of rain.