New conference, old rival: Could Fresno State upset the Broncos again? Here’s how

BOISE (Idaho Statesman) — Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles to Boise State football’s entire season has arrived.

Yes, the trip to a ranked Oregon was always going to be tough. As were the potentially season-defining nonconference matchups against Memphis and Western Michigan. And some Pac-12 teams emerging through the first half of the season could trouble the Broncos, such as Oregon State and Colorado State.

But none of those teams are Fresno State.

“Being here for 10 seasons now,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said on Monday, “there’s been a lot of hard memories against Fresno.”

No. 23 Boise State (4-1) travels to central California to take on Fresno State (4-1) in a 8:30 p.m. Mountain Time game on Saturday. The Broncos have lost the last three games between the two teams, dating back to 2022, and they haven’t beaten the Bulldogs in California since 2021.

Last season, Fresno State marched into the Treasure Valley and defeated Boise State 30-7 on The Blue.

Boise State starting quarterback Maddux Madsen was injured during the Broncos’ second series that afternoon and did not return for the rest of the game. Yet whether it was through Derek Carr’s game-winning drive to win 41-40 in 2013, or the shocking victory on The Blue in 2022 to claim the Mountain West title, the Bulldogs have often found ways to ruin the Broncos’ day.

Can they do it again on Saturday and pull off a victory that would completely alter both the Pac-12 and College Football Playoff picture? It’s certainly not out of the question.

Here’s how.

Rolling after a bad start

The Bulldogs got off to as rough a start as you could ask for, getting shut out 39-0 by USC. However, USC is now 5-1 and ranked 19th in the country, while Fresno State has won every single game since then to go 4-1.

Most recently, Fresno State defeated Washington State 26-6 to join Boise State in opening Pac-12 play 1-0. In the Bulldogs’ four wins, they’ve allowed 10 or fewer points on three occasions. And even with the big loss to USC, their defense has allowed an average of just 16.4 points per game, which ranks 27th in the nation.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ turnover margin of eight ranks 4th in the nation after recovering four fumbles and making seven interceptions, while committing just two fumbles and one interception — and two of those Fresno State turnovers came in the opener against USC.

An intricate run game

Although Fresno State quarterback Jayden Mandal has impressed after his tough start against USC — posting 1,143 total yards and seven touchdowns to just one interception in five games — the Bulldogs’ run game could cause the most trouble.

Boise State’s run defense showed its first cracks this past week against Utah State, giving up five running plays of at least 10 yards, including two for 46 and 64 yards. That’ll give confidence to an active group of Bulldog rushers, led by senior Rayshon Luke and junior Bryson Donelson. The pair have combined for 492 rushing yards and five touchdowns this season.

However, it’s more the Bulldogs’ physical two-tight-end sets, which they run out for rushing plays, and their ability to push defensive ends out wide that could cause Boise State trouble.

“They do a great job with some unusual counter plays, pulling the guard and the tackle. They do some great stuff with some split zone,” Boise State defensive coordinator Erik Chinander said on Monday. “There’s a lot of intricacies in the run game that have to be cleaned up and addressed when you’re playing a team like this.”

Turnover capabilities

As mentioned above, the Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, with 11 total. Seven of those turnovers came through interceptions, which could be an advantage for the Broncos, given that starting QB Maddux Madsen hasn’t thrown a single pick all season.

However, the Broncos have fumbled the ball over three times, and there’s a small chance that both starting running backs, Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley, could miss Saturday’s game with injuries. That’ll put a lot of pressure on junior backups Juelz Goff and Harry Stewart III.

“They’re going to put you in conflict offensively, and then they’re going to be super stingy on defense and take the ball,” Danielson said. “… It’s no wonder they’re 4-1, one of the best teams we’ll see all season, and why they handled us the way they did last season.”

Boise State at Fresno State

When: 8:30 p.m. Mountain Time, Saturday
Where: Valley Children’s Stadium (40,727, Turf)
TV: CW Sports (Rick Allen, Will Blackmon)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM and KBOI 93.1 FM/Sirius XM Ch. 84 (Bob Behler, Michael Callahan)
Records: Boise State 4-1, 1-0; Fresno State 4-1, 1-0
Series: Boise State leads the series 17-10
Vegas line: Boise State by 6.5 points
Weather: High of 84, low of 60, humidity 42%, sunny, 0% chance of rain