How could Western Michigan upset Boise State? Watch out for lonnggg drives

BOISE (Idaho Statesman) — Saturday afternoon’s critical game between Boise State (2-1) and Western Michigan (2-1) could turn into a war of attrition between two sides that know how they want to play, and often refuse to budge.

Boise State fans are accustomed to their Broncos putting the rock into the hands of running backs and grinding down opposition defenses. Western Michigan (also the Broncos) aren’t too much different — if anything, the up-and-coming MAC team might be even more committed to the run.

Through three games this season, Boise State has run the ball on 58% of snaps, which ranks 41st in the nation. Western Michigan has kept the ball on the ground on a whopping 65.7% of its plays, which is No. 9 in the nation.

The Kalamazoo Broncos stay with it, too — they are averaging 4 yards per carry, which is not off the charts, so short gains aren’t frightening.

“They can run the dang football, man,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said this week. “Yes, they’ve got a quarterback and receivers to launch, and they’ll create explosive pass plays. But that tailback and those tight ends and that offensive line are tough.”

Despite Boise State traveling to Kalamazoo this weekend with one of the worst-ranked pass defenses, Western Michigan is unlikely to change things up. One key reason is that the home team could be without its top wide receiver.

Sophomore Aveion Chenault leads Western Michigan in receptions (13) and receiving yards (216), but he’s listed as questionable heading into the game because of a lower-body injury. Western Michigan’s next-best receiver, Baylin Brooks, has just nine receptions for 80 yards.

That leads us to quarterback Broc Lowry. The 6-foot-1 senior QB is nearly just as apt to run with the ball as to launch it downfield. Through three starts, he has completed 43-of-61 passes for 417 yards, and has run the ball 36 times for 114 yards.

However, 212 of those passing yards came in a comfortable win over FCS program Monmouth. Against Division I opponents, Lowry had 15 completions and 15 running plays at Michigan, and had 14 completions to go along with 17 runs in a win over Rice. When Lowry isn’t keeping the ball, it’s usually in the hands of fifth-year running back Jalen Buckley.

The 225-pound tailback leads Western Michigan with 207 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 42 carries.

“Their running back might be one of the best running backs we’ve seen all season,” Danielson.

So how long can each team hang on to the ball?

Boise State ranks 4th in the nation for time of possession, averaging 36 minutes and 23 seconds per game. That facet of the Broncos’ game was on point last weekend against South Dakota, as they embarked on multiple time-consuming touchdown drives and had the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game.

Impressive, right? Western Michigan is even more selfish with the ball. The Broncos from Kalamazoo rank No. 3 in the nation in time of possession, at 36:30. In Western Michigan’s controversial 13-12 loss to Michigan in Week 1, the offense put together a 20-play drive that lasted 13:40 — yes, nearly a whole quarter of the game — and was capped off with not a TD, but a 39-yard field goal.

“They will take the play clock all the way down to three or four seconds dang near every play to hold the ball and keep offenses off the field, and it’s been very successful,” Danielson said. “That’s not something where you think, ‘Oh I think I’m going to try this.’ That’s a part of their culture, a part of their program with their toughness and physicality, and it shows up on film.”