Is this the most competitive Idaho US Senate race in a half-century? Depends on which candidate you ask
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BOISE – Is Idaho’s upcoming U.S. Senate Race competitive? It depends on who you ask.
According to Republican Sen. Jim Risch, who’s served as a senator for Idaho since 2009, it’s not. But if you ask former state Rep.Todd Achilles, an independent candidate who is challenging him in the mid-term elections this November, it is. Both sides have polling data to back up their views.
While the outcome of the election remains to be seen, Charles Hunt, Ph.D., an associate professor at Boise State University, sees this race as more interesting than previous years, due to “interesting circumstances” surrounding it.
“I think the main one is the entrance of a reasonably well-known – I think – strongly campaigning independent candidate for the Senate. You have independent candidates or third-party candidates running in some form or another every year, but typically they do not have robust campaigns,” Hunt said.
The way Risch sees it, this election isn’t much different from the ones he’s won in the past.
“I’m running against one Democrat instead of two Democrats. That’s what I’ve always done, is run against one Democrat,” Risch said in an interview with EastIdahoNews.com, referencing that Achilles was a Democrat in the state Legislature before becoming an independent, and that the Democratic nominee, David Roth, dropped out of the race.
RELATED | Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate drops out; Risch and Achilles set to face-off
However, Achilles feels confident in his chances of winning the seat.
“Everybody is done with the status quo,” Achilles told EastIdahoNews.com in an interview. “This is the throw-the-bums-out year.”
And Achilles says that his campaign has shown movement in polling numbers.
During a virtual town hall on Tuesday, he announced recent polling that shows him with a five-point advantage over Risch in a head-to-head race. This polling was taken after Roth dropped his bid for the seat.
The polling, conducted by the Bulfinch Group, shows Achilles winning 38% of the vote to Risch’s 33%, with 29% still unsure.
But less favorable to his campaign, this polling shows that in a three-way race, which includes Libertarian candidate Matt Loesby, Achilles only nets 30% of the vote. In this race, Risch comes out on top at 34%, with Loesby at 4% and 32% unsure.
Achilles argued during the town hall that this polling data shows this race as being the most competitive in Idaho “in nearly 50 years.”
In 1980, former Republican Sen. Steve Symms, unseated Democratic Sen. Frank Church by a margin of only 4,000 votes, which was less than a percentage point. And then in 1986, Symms won re-election against his Democratic challenger, the sitting Idaho Gov. John Evans, by a margin of around 3 percentage points.
“If the election happened today, it’s a statistical tie between Risch and me, but a third of Idahoans are still making up their minds,” Achilles said.
But Risch argued that this polling was unreliable, dubbing it a “push poll,” where the polling agency includes biased descriptions of the candidates.
“That obviously gives you a different result than just a question … ‘If the election were held today, who would you vote for?'” Risch said.
EastIdahoNews.com reviewed the polling document and found no incidents of the survey respondents being provided with descriptions of the candidates.
On Monday, Risch’s campaign released polling data from Peak Insights that paints a very different picture of the race. This poll showed Risch up by 34 points at 52%, Achilles at 18%, Natalie Fleming, another independent candidate, at 9% and Loesby at 2%.
Risch spoke to the accuracy of his polling data.
“They have been right smack on the money every single time. So when they tell me I’m 34 points up, I’m 34 points up,” Risch said.
Additionally, Risch’s polling found that he moved to 57% on the ballot after respondents heard the following message:
“Todd Achilles claims to be an independent, but just a year ago he was serving in the Legislature as a liberal Democrat. Achilles supports allowing men to play in women’s sports and use women’s locker rooms and bathrooms. He’s also currently on the faculty at the liberal University of California Berkley and one of the biggest Democrat donors in Idaho, having donated tens of thousands of dollars to the Obama, Clinton, Biden and even Kamala Harris campaigns.”
Achilles responded to this statement, saying that before he became a Democrat, he was a Republican. During the town hall, he argued that his record showed him as a true independent.
“I earned the reputation as being one of the most bipartisan leaders in the state house,” Achilles said.
Additionally, he said he teaches public policy at the College of Idaho and Boise State University in addition to UC Berkley, and that Risch’s campaign isn’t including the donations he’s made to Republican candidates.
“I’ve donated to many of my Republican colleagues in the Legislature,” Achilles said.
Edward Greer, Ph.D., a visiting professor at Idaho State University, said that for Achilles to win, he would have to successfully distance himself from the “mainstream Democratic brand.”
“I don’t know if he has a safe shot of winning or anything like that, but I would say that maybe he has a better chance than in the past,” Greer said.
Jeffrey Lyons, Ph.D., an associate professor at Boise State University, said that Idaho is among the top five most conservative states in the nation.
“It’s going to be tough. Like, the deck is stacked against him just by virtue of the composition of the electorate,” Lyon said. “To see somebody other than a Republican win in a state with this sort of a Republican lean, I think would be perhaps possible, but we’ll put that in the surprising category.”
Risch argues that voters can’t really know what to expect when voting for Achilles. In contrast, he said they know exactly what they’re getting if they vote for him.
“I cast regularly, and absolutely with assurance and without question, a conservative vote for Idahoans. They know that. They know what they’re getting when they vote for me,” Risch said.
Achilles emphasized the importance of building bipartisanship, and said he won’t exclusively caucus with either party. He argued that a scenario could play out in the Senate in which neither party wins a clear majority of seats, making independent candidates the most important votes in the chamber.
“The Senate’s going to be closely divided (and) the independents are going to be the most important votes,” Achilles said. “We get enough independents across the line that we can create this independent caucus, or a fulcrum caucus, where we deny a majority to either party. And when we do that, we can set the agenda and set the priorities for the Senate.”
Greer said that if this scenario were to play out, where the independents effectively become “swing voters,” it would significantly affect the balance of power in the Senate.
“That has pretty big implications for the power dynamics of the Senate,” Greer said. “It has implications for the downstream effects, such as committee assignments, as well as what bills make it onto the floor, and whether bills could even make it past a filibuster.”
EastIdahoNews.com asked the Republican and independent candidates if they planned to participate in any debates, if one is scheduled.
“There’s none scheduled, and I haven’t given any consideration (to that) at this point,” Risch said.
“We’re on board for a debate. We would love a debate,” Achilles said. “I think that that would be just a great opportunity for Idahoans in general to understand who is representing them and who can represent them.”