Democrats picked up seats in the Idaho Legislature. Will they have more power?

Boise (Idaho Statesman) — Idaho Democrats, fed up in March with a bill on transgender youth they called “harmful,” couldn’t do much to stop it from moving forward. They were a miniscule presence in the Statehouse, with under 20% of the votes in both the House and Senate.

But they at least had a plan to make their voices heard: They would insert a report into the House Journal, an oft-ignored record of the day’s events, outlining their frustrations.

But the Republican supermajority flexed its power and blocked Democrats from doing even that. 57 of the chamber’s 61 Republicans voted to block the Democrat’s report — and the Democrats, with just nine representatives in the House, couldn’t do anything about it.

Idaho Democrats picked up six legislative seats on Tuesday — five in the House and one in the Senate. Will that boost help them prevent such an outcome against a united bloc of Republicans next time?

The short answer, observers and senior lawmakers assessed, is no.

In January, 14 of the Idaho House’s 70 members will be blue. But the remaining 56 Republicans, if united, can change rules and pass legislation without Democrats’ input. In the Senate, where Democrats picked up one seat, Republicans will similarly hold 80% of the votes.

“Republicans will still have a supermajority,” said Jaclyn Kettler, a Boise State University political scientist. “These six pickups are not enough to dramatically change a bunch of votes on legislation on the floor.”

Idaho’s House Speaker, Mike Moyle, agreed. “For the most part, I don’t think it’s that much of a change,” Moyle, R-Star, said in a phone interview on Friday.

But not every vote goes along party lines — and that’s where Kettler said the additional Democratic seats could make a difference.

For example, some Republicans in 2026 voted to protect gay marriage or against immigration bills they felt were unconstitutional or that faced law enforcement pushback. In past years, Republicans have been similarly split over state budgets, said Rep. Ilana Rubel, the House minority leader.

That kind of infighting, Rubel, of Boise, said of Republican division, “provides a really strong opening for Democrats” to punch above their weight.

“We can be a pretty powerful force in swinging between the factions of the party,” Rubel told the Idaho Statesman.

Changes to GOP dynamics in Idaho Statehouse

The GOP’s makeup in the Statehouse changed this week, too, as largely more-moderate candidates prevailed. But Democrats’ own wins could affect GOP dynamics: As they swept districts in West Boise and beyond this week, Democrats beat some Republican incumbents who had voted with them, at least occasionally, in the past.

For example, Democrat Mary Shea beat Rep. Dustin Manwaring, R-Pocatello, one of the three Republicans who voted against blocking the Democrats’ report.

Elsewhere, Anita Janis beat Rep. Mike Pohanka, one of the few Republicans who changed his vote on gay marriage this year, voting against an attempt to call on the U.S. Supreme Court to undo its landmark 2015 decision. One of the others, Rep. Dori Healey, R-Boise, also lost to a democratic challenger, Jae Etchart.

Another possible area for change is committee assignments. Committees, small groups of lawmakers, decide which bills and funding move forward to receive a full vote on the House or Senate floor. Moyle said he expects the new Democrats to be assigned to committees, which Rubel said could help with nipping some bills in the bud.

One of the biggest changes in the body was the decimation in May of the self-identified “Gang of 8”: Republican lawmakers who refused to vote for budgets unless it aligned with their goals of limiting federal funding and new government employees. Five members of the group lost in the primary.

In the state senate, Democrats picked up one seat, giving the party seven of 35 seats. Two hard-line Republicans lost to two moderates in southern Idaho.

But up north, Sen. Jim Woodward, R-Sagle, will cede his seat to former Sen. Scott Herndon, who has taken more hardline conservative positions, including pushing for eliminating property taxes.

There’s more change expected. Rep. John Shirts, R-Weiser, won his election unopposed. But he’ll have to step down after being named U.S. attorney for the District of Idaho in late October. For his seat, the local Republican Party will nominate three names, and Gov. Little will ultimately select a replacement.

Still, Moyle doesn’t think the election’s changes will have a big effect on outcomes.

“I think (the next legislative session will) be on par with the last one,” Moyle said. “I think we’ll get in there, we’ll set the budgets, and we’ll find ways to give money back to the citizens.”

Sarah Cutler contributed reporting.