How many precincts flipped during the Idaho Falls and Pocatello runoff elections?
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IDAHO FALLS — After thousands of votes, a candidate in Idaho Falls and a candidate in Pocatello found success Tuesday night, with many voters deciding to hit the polls in a second go-around runoff election.
In November, a mayoral race in Idaho Falls between Lisa Burtenshaw, Jeff Alldridge and Christian Ashcraft failed to find a majority winner, resulting in a December runoff between Burtenshaw and Alldridge. In Pocatello, seven mayoral candidates also failed to find a majority, resulting in a runoff between Mark Dahlquist and Greg Cates. Burtenshaw was the victor in Idaho Falls, and Dahlquist in Pocatello.
An analysis of the precinct maps reveals that a significant number of precincts changed their support between the general election and the runoff election.
Get full general election (November) results here and runoff election (December) results here.
RELATED | Lisa Burtenshaw wins runoff election to become new Idaho Falls mayor
RELATED | Mark Dahlquist triumphs over Greg Cates in Pocatello mayor race
The mayoral runoff races between Idaho Falls and Pocatello were starkly different in voter turnout: Pocatello saw over 1,000 fewer voters than in the general election, while in Idaho Falls, a slight increase of 200 new voters made it to the polls.
Lisa Burtenshaw flipped nine precincts and gained nearly 900 new votes to become Idaho Falls’ new mayor. In Pocatello, Mark Dahlquist gained more than 2,000 new votes despite a lower turnout to secure his win.
The following data was collected from the VoteIdaho.gov website. The maps show where candidates in Idaho Falls and Pocatello received the majority of votes. Click on the maps to see the results by individual precinct.Click here to view interactive maps where you can see the results by individual precinct. Here’s what the numbers show:
Idaho Falls
General election
In Idaho Falls, a total of 11,795 votes were cast in the mayoral race in November between Burtenshaw, Jeff Alldridge and Christian Ashcraft.
While neither candidate secured a 50% majority, Alldridge received the most votes, with 5,623 residents voting for him. Burtenshaw was just a small margin behind with 5,440 votes, while Ashcraft received only 732.
EastIdahoNews.com spoke with Shin Kue Ryu, chairman of the Political Science Department at Idaho State University, about the results.
Ryu said although the race in Idaho Falls was more competitive than in Pocatello, it ultimately came down to Ashcraft voters.
Looking at the results, Ryu said most of Ashcraft’s support came from the center of town, with Precinct 18 reporting the most votes for Ashcraft.
Precinct 18, which Alldridge won, is at St. Clair Avenue and 12th Street and the properties surrounding the intersection, where Ashcraft received 79 votes.
“Precinct 18 is the one to watch, as it will tell how Christian Ashcraft supporters are switching their votes. If that pattern holds for the center precincts, it will be clear who is likely to win the runoff election,” Ryu told EastIdahoNews.com before the runoff election.
Runoff election
During the runoff election, Burtenshaw, who was trailing behind Alldridge in votes, saw an impressive showing Tuesday night.
Ryu stated that Burtenshaw saw significant movement, including gaining new voters and flipping nine precincts from Alldridge. Comparing the number of voters between the two elections, the runoff saw 229 more votes than in November, with certain precincts seeing more voters.
“She was also able to mobilize the previously non-voting population to the voting booths,” Ryu stated. “She made gains in the important precincts, where a significant number of voters needed to move to either of the runoff candidates,” Ryu stated.
The precincts Burtenshaw flipped were 22, 6, 7, 10, 46, 17, 16, 18 and 24.
Precinct 24, which includes the properties near Sunnyside Elementary and boarding south towards East 65th Street, was held by Alldridge by 2 points. In this precinct, Alldridge saw 39 new votes, for a total of 403, but Burtenshaw saw 62 more, surpassing Alldridge with 425.
Looking at the precincts in which Alldridge maintained his majority in the second round of voting, his majority was either gained a slight increase, or saw a decrease in votes.
An example of this is in Precinct 5, which incorporates the neighborhoods around Melaleuca Fields, Alldridge saw four fewer votes, while Burtenshaw managed to get 27 new votes. However, this precinct saw 14 fewer voters in the runoff than in the November election.
Overall, Burtenshaw saw an increase in votes during the runoff with 898 new votes, whereas Alldridge only managed to get 40 new votes.
Pocatello
General election
In the general election for Pocatello’s mayor, seven candidates vied for the 50% majority.
Despite having incumbent Brian Blad as one of the candidates, Greg Cates and Mark Dahlquist received the majority of the votes, with Cates getting 30% and Dahlquist getting 40%.
Between the two candidates, they gathered a total of 9,071 votes, with 3,699 going to the five other candidates.
While Dahlquist had the majority, looking at precincts throughout Pocatello, voters in the city’s northern portions, such as precincts 34 and 36, voted for Cates. These areas are located near Highland High School and extend as far west as O.K. Ward Park.
Precinct 18, which incorporates the areas near WinCo Foods, Syringa Elementary School, and Amy’s Kitchen, saw a tie between Cates and Dahlquist, with 98 votes between the two.
Runoff election
During the runoff election, Pocatello saw a significant decrease in voter turnout, with 1,107 fewer voters than in November.
In November, 12,772 residents voted for one of the seven candidates, but on Tuesday, 11,665 returned to vote in the runoff election.
Despite this, Mark Dahlquist secured over 7,238 votes (62.06%) to Greg Cates’s 4,424 (37.94%).
Ryu told EastIdahoNews.com that an important aspect of the runoff race is identifying the voters who didn’t vote for either candidate, roughly 3,500 votes or 29% of November’s voters, and determining who they will decide to vote for in December.
“However, this assumption is unlikely to materialize, as those who did not vote for candidates Cates and Dahlquist (in November) face a weaker incentive to vote, since voting takes time and resources, and neither of the remaining candidates is their first choice,” Ryu said before the runoff.
The areas that Ryu said each candidate needed to focus on were in the precincts near Highland High School, given the number of votes that could change.
These precincts are 35 through 40, and according to Ryu’s analysis, there were more than 1,110 votes that could have changed between Cates and Dalquist.
However, in the runoff election, this area saw only 683 additional votes cast between the two candidates.
Dahlquist had a better showing in these precincts, flipping precincts 34 and 36, which had previously been in the majority for Cates. Out of the votes in this area, Dalhquist managed to move 149 votes into his favor.
Dahlquist observed significant improvements in precincts 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25 and 26. These areas extend as far south as the Museum of Clean and as far north as Scardino Park.
In total, he gained 423 additional votes in these areas; however, in precinct 18, he did not secure a majority in the November election.
The precincts in which Dahlquist flipped from Cates, aside from 18, 34 and 36, totaled seven precincts in the northern and southern parts of Pocatello.