East Idaho winter hits pause again, but snow season is far from over

POCATELLO — While eastern Idaho received some much-needed and anticipated snowfall at the beginning of the month, the wintry conditions appear to have been short-lived. Much of the region is once again seeing bare ground and warmer-than-average temperatures.

However, despite a slow start to winter, forecasters and water managers concur: “We’re not doomed yet.” It is still too early to draw solid conclusions about the overall winter or water year.

Dry and mild winter pattern continues

According to meteorologist Andrew McKaughan at the National Weather Service office in Pocatello, weather models are showing little to no chance of precipitation for at least the next two weeks.

“Unless something drastically changes, we’re seeing zero chance of precipitation for at least the next week and a half, maybe longer,” McKaughan said. “High and low temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal, with few exceptions.”

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Over the next week and into the extended forecast period, east Idaho can expect mostly dry and relatively mild winter weather. High pressure will keep skies mainly sunny to partly cloudy, with daytime highs generally in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows mainly in the teens to low 20s.

While patchy morning fog may develop at times as temperatures cool overnight, McKaughan said precipitation is not expected through much of the forecast period.

Toward the latter part of the outlook, there may be limited chances for light snow or mixed precipitation, though no major storms are currently forecast.

McKaughan, who moved to east Idaho from Florida and has been forecasting weather in the region for the past six years, said this winter stands out.

“This is the strangest winter I’ve seen so far,” he said.

However, McKaughan emphasized that despite the lack of snow, the region is not dry, saying, “Much of the precipitation this winter has fallen as rain, leaving soil moisture levels high, which is an important factor heading into spring.”

What’s the water outlook?

Craig Chandler, water manager for Water District 1, said this year’s water outlook is shaped by two competing dynamics: low physical water storage entering the season, but high overall precipitation, much of it in the form of rain.

Water District 1 encompasses the Upper Snake River Basin, located above American Falls Reservoir, including the Snake River and its tributaries, such as the Henrys Fork, Teton, Falls, Blackfoot, and Portneuf river systems.

In a recent report provided to EastIdahoNews.com, Chandler said the Upper Snake River reservoir system is currently holding approximately 1.9 million acre-feet and is 47% full. Storage is well below average and about 570,000 acre-feet lower than at this time last year.

Since Oct. 1, 2025, precipitation accumulation for the Snake River above Milner is 134% of the median to date, a strong start to the season. However, unusually warm temperatures — with several records broken — have caused a larger share of that precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow.

As a result, soil moisture is around 130% of average for the Snake above Milner.

Snow accumulation has lagged behind precipitation totals but remains above average in key areas, according to Chandler. Current snow water equivalent (SWE) is:

• 129% for the Snake above Heise
• 103% for the Henrys Fork–Teton
• 80% for the Willow Creek–Blackfoot–Portneuf

Chandler explained that because the majority of system runoff is generated from the Snake above Heise, that basin remains the primary driver of spring inflows.

Reservoir priorities and what comes next

Chandler said the April–June runoff will likely need to be well above average for the system to have a realistic chance of filling. While conditions are favorable from a precipitation standpoint so far, the region is only about halfway through the snow accumulation season.

Although SWE above Heise is currently 129% of average for this date, it is still just 54% of its typical seasonal peak, leaving room for additional accumulation.

The American Falls 1921 storage right is currently a priority and is expected to remain so through the remainder of winter. Whether it completely fills will depend on spring runoff, though probabilities favor a complete or near-complete fill due to its senior priority.

Fill into more junior storage accounts — Island Park (1935), Palisades (1939), and Ririe (1969) — is less certain. If runoff is low, it remains possible these accounts could receive little to no new fill.

Meanwhile, Jackson Lake’s 1910 and Henrys Lake’s 1917 storage water rights are currently accruing all inflows under their senior priorities. Jackson Lake’s 1910 account is likely to fill completely, while the 1913 account will depend on runoff. Lake Walcott, Palisades Winter Water Savings, and Island Park Winter Water Savings storage rights have already filled.

“This winter could turn into a bad scenario, but we’re only halfway there,” Chandler concluded. “Overall, with three months of weather yet to go, it remains too early to predict the water supply for the region.”