Eastern Idaho shatters records with warmest December in 85 years

POCATELLO — The only white Christmas locals can expect to see this year is the movie, as eastern Idaho is expected to break multiple records with temperatures in the high ’50s across the holiday season.

Snowday hopefuls will have to wait and try again next year, as much of eastern Idaho is expected to have a very warm and wet holiday. According to Jack Messick, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Pocatello, there is nearly no chance of having snow on Christmas.

“We’ve been setting records at some of our observation sites, and we’re probably going to set more this week,” Messick says.

Forecasts for Christmas Day show a high of 58 degrees in Pocatello, smashing a 70-year record high of 52 degrees in 1955.

In Idaho Falls, the record sat at 46 degrees in 2005. Again, this year is expected to break that 25-year record, with a high of 55 degrees.

Rexburg is expected to see a rainy Christmas Day with a high of 53 degrees, and even many of the ski towns will see high temperatures, including Driggs at a high of 49 degrees, Victor at a high of 48 degrees, and Ririe with a high of 54 degrees.

Not only will the Christmas holiday itself be unusually warm, but the entire month of December has even broken records for its warm temperatures.

“I believe it’s around 50% of our Christmases since 1939 have been what they consider a white Christmas,” Messick says. “I would say probably about a third of the Christmases actually have snow that falls on that day. ”

Messick says this December is officially the warmest since 1939, 85 years ago. In fact, it hasn’t even been below freezing since Dec. 15, when temperatures reached 17 degrees in Pocatello, and a brisk 5 degrees in Idaho Falls on Dec. 3.

“If the forecast holds up and nothing changes, we will have a new record warm December, probably in (Pocatello), Idaho Falls, Burley, and even places like Sun Valley and Rexburg, will probably set records,” Messick says.

Why is it so warm?

As to why this month has been so unusually warm, Messick says it’s a shock to everyone, as the original forecasts showed the month was supposed to be very cold, and very snowy, as the climate transitioned to a La Nina weather pattern.

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According to the National Weather Service, a La Nina refers to “the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Typically, La Nina events occur every three to five years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years.”

Messick says although this is still considered a La Nina winter, it’s definitely not acting like one.

“They were expecting colder-than-normal temperatures and wetter than normal for precipitation. So I would have expected more snow. … And that has totally not happened in this month, and it’s not likely to happen in this month,” Messick says. “It’s not living up to what we would normally expect, unless of course, if everything evens out, and that means we have a bitter cold January and February, which I’d hate to think of that, but that is certainly always a possibility.”

While locals looked confusedly out their windows at people walking around in shorts just days before Christmas, Messick says the wind can also be to blame for the higher-than-normal temperatures.

“For about two and a half weeks, we had high pressure, which produced clear skies and warm temperatures. A lot of times, if the high temperatures are up far enough west, then we get a northerly wind, which brings air from Canada, but it didn’t,” Messick says. “We were getting winds out of the south, which meant we got warm air from California, Nevada and Arizona moving in here, and of course, it’s warmer down there. That just brought in all of this warm air and sunny skies.”